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2012 UPDATE – OUR CURRENT SITUATION

This website reveals a sorry saga of failure
on behalf of governments and their agencies to
prepare for the catastrophic effects of Peak Oil.

BACKGROUND

    Last update: 06th August, 2011
    NEW! Poems by The Peak Oil Poet
    NEW! Kevin D Moore – Submission to NPDC April 2011
    NEW! This must be a nightmare
    NEW! The Growth Syndrome – Economic Destitution
    NEW! The Oil Crunch – A wake-up call for the UK economy
    NEW! New Zealand Government wakes up?
    NEW! My Mother’s Day Gift to the Planet: Not Having Kids
  • From the mid-1950s onwards specialists in their fields gained a good understanding of resource depletion and environmental degradation, and gave ever more explicit warnings about over-consumption of resources and excessive consumption of energy.
     
  • Many highly reputable oil geologists predicted that Peak Oil (the maximum rate of global extraction of oil) would occur between 2005 and 2010, after which extraction would decline.
     
  • Orthodox economic models are based on continuous growth and fail if there is not an increasing supply of energy and resources.
     
  • Oil is the linchpin of most transport systems and of the industrialized agricultural system. Without cheap and abundant oil most transport systems and industrialized food systems collapse.
     
  • Oil is also the raw material for the production of a wide range of products ranging from household paint to shoes. A declining oil supply implies rising prices and shortages of many items people currently take for granted, including basic food items.
     
  • The Hirsch Report of 2005 indicated that a 20 year period would be required to facilitate a smooth transition to an oil-independent economy.
     
  • Despite being provided with irrefutable evidence that Peak Oil was imminent, governments, continued to implement policies based on the flawed economic models and the absurd notion that Peak Oil was so far into the future no preparation was necessary.
  • Alas, most people were happy with this arrangement, finding misinformation provided by official sources preferable to the truth —that their way of life was unsustainable and would change drastically.

CURRENT SITUATION

  • Extraction data indicates that the extraction of conventional oil peaked over the period 2005 to 2008. The global economic system suffered an ‘energy shock” which (in combination with fraudulent money creation) resulted in economic turmoil. —falling house prices, company failures, rapidly rising unemployment, rising food prices and collapsing economies. Despite official denial, the predicament gets worse by the day.
     
  • Despite the chaos that has already occurred, governments continue to ignore the issue of Peak Oil and continue to promote economic growth, even though it is easily demonstrated to be a mathematical impossibility. (See Professor Albert Bartlett: Arithmetic Population and Energy).
     
  • Governments and their agencies continue to mislead the general public into believing that alternative energy supplies and alternative raw materials will allow present economic and social arrangements to continue. For reasons explained in linked articles so-called alternatives cannot possibly replace oil.
  • Alas, most people remain ignorant of the facts, and still think that current living arrangements will continue largely unchanged.

FUTURE

  • At some stage in the near future (best evidence indicates between 2012 and 2015) declining energy availability will derail the globalised economy and derail much of the industrialized food system, leading to widespread starvation.
     
  • Globalisation will reverse and people will become increasingly dependent on locally obtainable resources.
     
  • Fiat currencies are likely to become increasingly worthless and may fail altogether.
     
  • The transition period to a sane way of living is will be extremely messy, with high unemployment, food shortages and social breakdown, especially in major population centres. Only a tiny portion of the population is at all prepared for this.
  • At some point in the future we could easily witness the complete collapse of all the complex systems which make the current ‘civilization’ possible, e.g. the electricity grid. There is a distinct possibility that desperate attempts to maintain current arrangements will lead to ‘last man standing’ resource wars. There is also a distinct possibility that humanity’s failure to address carbon dioxide emissions will result in abrupt climate change and ‘dead’ oceans.

    We would hope that once the abject failure of central and local government become blatantly obvious most people will awaken from the ‘collective trance’. However, there is no guarantee this will happen.

WHAT SHOULD I DO?

  • Read as much of the oilcrash site as you can, follow the links, and become informed.
     
  • If you don’t already have one, start preparing a large vegetable garden immediately. Purchase hand tools and learn how to use them.
     
  • Expect the situation a few years hence to be worse than the Great Depression and Second World War combined.
  • Tell as many others as will listen, bearing in mind that ignorance and complacency are endemic in western societies, so many will scoff and mock, even when the evidence of systemic collapse is irrefutable.