by Robert Atack, Otaki candidate
Being misinformed is common, but sometimes it is due to disinformation from the industrial and political state.(pointing at the stage “these people”). The public is kept from knowing about peak oil and the full implications including petrocollapse and a new paradigm to follow. As long as money is a society’s reason for being, and no opposition movement arises, we will continue to drive towards the ecological cliff like motorized lemmings.
Fossil fuels are a 2 edged sword; they have allowed us to grow the world’s population to 2 to 3 times its carrying capacity and yet destroy the very substance of life, our clean air and water.
When this supply of free energy starts to decline we will see massif unrest (not unlike what is happening in Iraq now or Rwanda several years ago).
Wars and disorder throughout history have been about the haves and the have nots, it is rather unfortunate that now the have nots are so heavily armed and are able to take from the energy rich countries.
At a time when it no longer seems fashionable to tell the truth, the Direct Democracy Party is committed to providing New Zealanders with the best information available and to providing accurate commentary when other political parties fail to do so.
I am currently informing people about the problems we will face as a community as we pass through Peak Oil — that period when oil supply fails to meet demand. I believe that it is only as an informed and cohesive community that we will be able to make the transition successfully.
We (Direct Democracy) are certain that this issue will concern you just as much as it concerns us and once you are fully acquainted with the facts, you will begin to wonder why most other parties are not discussing it.
I have been studying Peak Oil for a number of years and have many resources that can help you understand this issue. Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions.
I also have several copies of The End of Suburbia (The collapse of the New Zealand dream) to lend out, you will find them at the back of the room on my display, please feel free to borrow them.
Thousands of New Zealanders have become thoroughly sick of the politics of failure that have characterised both the major and most minor political parties over the past decades, and many people have now realised that continuation of these politics of failure will result in complete collapse of the New Zealand economy over the coming parliamentary term.
Whilst it is perfectly obvious to everyone else in the room that petrol has risen in price from 93 cents to $1.44 plus over the past 18 months, as a severe supply-demand crisis develops, and that further substantial rises in energy costs are inevitable, as the world rapidly approaches Peak Oil, most political parties seem to prefer to avoid discussion of this reality altogether.
Rather than discuss what is happening in the real world, most political parties prefer to ignore the facts and seem to be trying to entice voters, by offering promises of tax cuts or increases in benefits that will clearly be utterly impossible to deliver.
Any politician or candidate that talks of increases in exports, growth of tourism or economic growth over the coming decade has either not done his/her homework or is deliberately attempting to mislead voters into thinking that all is well with the international economic system, when in fact it is about to collapse in a manner reminiscent of 1929.
Any politician who says that the present economic system can operate without cheap energy is either a fool or a liar. Without energy, nothing happens. And contrary to the common myth, the US does not have abundant stores of oil, just awaiting the right moment for release.
In fact extraction of oil in the US peaked around 1970 and every day that passes, the US economy is falling into a deeper and deeper hole, as it imports both more oil and natural gas.
Like wise, any candidate or politician who says that there are billions of tonnes of oil shale in Canada that will solve the world’s energy problems clearly has got no clue about energy profit ratio and does not understand that most of that oil will never be extracted, since it takes vast amounts of energy to extract it. Also, delusions about hydrogen cars etc. are soon demolished by proper energy profit ratio analysis.
With our national airline facing collapse, due to rising fuel costs, and with latent inflation about to rear its ugly head throughout the New Zealand economy, no wonder the major political parties do not want the topic of energy supply on the political agenda at all and are doing their very best to have debate on this topic avoided or silenced until after the election.
Voters need only examine party political literature or websites to realise that most parties seem oblivious of the role that energy plays in a modern society; yet without energy, everything grinds to a halt. I do mean everything, including the food supply.
Voters must consider why internationally renowned experts, noted for telling the truth, have decided to associate themselves with Direct Democracy.
Could it be that Direct Democracy is the only party that is telling the truth and is the only party that is really preparing for it?
I therefore encourage all voters to visit the Direct Democracy website www.directdemocracy.net.nz and study the information contained on it before making any decision on how to vote.
Ladies and Gentleman,
I hope that after hearing what am about to say you will feel very uncomfortable. Then, at least I will know you have been listening.
To quote one of our recently discredited politicians, Dona Awatere Huata: «I wasn’t lying, I just wasn’t telling the truth». Most politicians think this way, if we don’t mention this or that then how can we be blamed when things go wrong. In an answer given in the house by Michael Cullen recently: «I do not understand what is meant by the term peak oil».
My interpretation of these Faulty Tower type statements is that as long as you don’t mention the war, it never happened. Or, thinking about our current situation, as long as we don’t mention Peak Oil, or just deny any knowledge, it will not happen and things will be just fine.
In 1930 the population of the planet was about 2 billion. As a result of the 2-3% annual increase in availability of energy over the subsequent 75 years, the population of the planet has grown to an estimated 6.4 billion.
Well very soon, this 3% annual boost to our energy supply will peter out and then go into reverse, as North America hits peak natural gas and the entire planet hits Peak Oil.
Unfortunately, a decreasing availability of energy must inevitably result in a decreasing availability of food and hence a lowering of the population. A 3% p.a. decline would probably result in an extra 220,000 deaths a day, but nobody is even sure that the decline in energy availability will in fact be just 3%: some analysts say it will be much more and an extra 500,000 deaths per day is quite conceivable. (or the population of Germany per year, minimum)
I hope that has got your attention!
The present Labour Government has been informed about peak oil for over 5 years. In fact before Helen Clark became our leader, I e-mailed her to say that peak oil was on its way and that she had better start preparing. I also wished her luck with her leadership. Since then oil has gone from $18.00 a barrel to nearly $70.00, whilst petrol has gone from about 80 cents to about $1.50 per litre. But did Helen Clark take any notice of the information I supplied to her, or that provided by dozens of other concerned citizens of this nation over the years? Not likely! To take note of reality would have got in the way of ideology. And we all know which is more important to Helen Clark. Ideology before reality, every time!
This year, with a burgeoning trade deficits (running at nearly 7% of GDP for the last 2 quarters and worsening substantially by the month) due partly to higher fuel costs, we are likely to see the New Zealand dollar start to devalue. And with that, the cost of our fuel will escalate in a self-reinforcing spiral, probably resulting in a meltdown similar to that achieved by Muldoon, as a result of his ill-considered Think Big projects.
The current mess we are in is due to longstanding mismanagement of our country by a succession of incompetent National and Labour governments.(and not to forget all their coalition partners and supporters) As a result of their dysfunctional policies, we are now unable to produce clothes for ourselves or even make shoes for the population. Like a junky, we are totally hooked on globalisation, which is almost 100% dependent on cheap oil and will therefore collapse once the cheap oil has gone.
With the worldwide peak in oil discoveries around 1960 and the current discovery rate for oil below that of 1920, with the infrastructure (pumps, tankers, refineries etc.) running at 95 to 100% capacity, there is no leeway for breakdown or error. Not even a storm. Yet few countries, other than China, are making significant investments in new infrastructure — a clear indication that both the oil companies and their investors know there is no long term future in oil!! Investment is limited to that required to keep the system running and poor maintenance has already seen a number of fires and explosions at US refineries. A $100 million+ upgrade of Marsden Point to process cheap oil has just been completed. This mind you is not to process our own oil: that is to good for New Zealand.
So if Labour government or any of the other parties offer you tax cuts, increases in benefits, new roads, free trips to the moon, or even free hot water, just ask them one question: «At what price per barrel of oil has all your disgusting lies been predicated on?»
I understand that Labour has based its own set of delusional promises on the Ministry of Economic Development report, that projects oil to be 25-30 dollars per barrel out to 2020 Yet the futures index, is already at around $60.00 out to 2011 and the crash in supply has hardly started yet. So someone has got something terribly wrong. (This was Jim Anderton’s department)
Unlike the mainstream politicians and candidates, who either refuse to look at the evidence or dismiss it as inconvenient, I put it to you that I am the only candidate for Otaki that is telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about oil. I stand by Direct Democracy as the only party that will tell the truth, however ugly it is, however uncomfortable it may make the listener feel.
Thomas Hardy once said: «If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst.»
Thank you for your attention.
Any derogatory comments I will make are not directed at the Maori Party, the NZ Democrats, or The Alliance.
I feel like the spicy dressing on a denial sandwich with these lairs and con people behind me and voters in front of me, to afraid to see the truth.
There are none so blind as those who refuse to look. Unfortunately, many New Zealanders still refuse to look, because they do not like what they see, things that do not fit their preconceptions of the world, preconceptions that are in fact drastically wrong.
We will soon reach the point at which the reality of an economy that is collapsing under burgeoning debt and escalating energy costs will be impossible to ignore, impossible to deny, even impossible to avoid. The collapse which is coming over the next few months will force those still in denial to change their ideas very rapidly, or perish.
There can be no more warnings. Time has run out. Now is the time for all who wish to have a future to stand up and be counted. Doing nothing, or making the wrong choice at the polling booth, implies charging over the edge of the cliff under the leadership of has-been politicians who know only how to deliver platitudes, lies, election bribes and promises that they cannot possibly fulfil.
Politicians who continue to deliver policies that compound all of this nation’s problems will face treason charges in the near future.
Peak oil is the turning point for mankind, and all our lives will be affected, in fact they will be drastically shortened, we can thank our ignorant leaders for the mess we are now in, they have had over 5 years to get us ready. All they have done is speed up this process of painting us into a corner. Thank you Helen, Michael, Pete, Trevor and Jeanette.
As I speak, citizens of supposedly the richest country in the world find themselves abandoned to dehydration and starvation by their government, a government that had plenty of warning that catastrophe was on its way, but did little or nothing to prepare, and now says «We are working on the problem».
Sadly, we find ourselves in a very similar situation right now, here in NZ, as the major parties spout their platitudes about tax cuts and a better tomorrow, whilst totally ignoring the tsunami of an oilcrash that is clearly visible on the horizon for anybody who cares to look, an energy tsunami that could well derail the economy in a matter of months and could easily lead to the kind of chaos that we are now witnessing in New Orleans!
The next election will determine whether New Zealand collapses into chaos (Zimbabwe comes to mind ) under Labour, National, NZF etc. or is able to work toward some kind of sustainable future for the children of this nation under a Direct Democracy Government.
This is end times for our oil driven community and while these clowns keep this truth from you it is only going to get a whole lot worse.
So you have a choice vote for your own selfish interests or vote for your children’s future, because it is your actions on the 17th that will dictate what kind of life we will all face…
I started looking into peak oil about 6 years ago, after about 3 months of reading articles by geologists and X oil company employees, I emailed Jeanette Fitzsimons as the leader of the Green party to ask if she had heard about peak oil, as I hadn’t heard anything from the green party about what seemed to me was a very scary situation.
Well Jeanette was very fast to reply to my email, with confirmation that Shell was saying peak oil would be 2005, and to get my bike out… that was it! Nothing else.
So I was left on my own without one political party interested in the facts I had discovered. NOT ONE party was interested in preparing NZ for an inevitable catastrophe!
So for the past 6 years I have been handing out leaflets, emailing, and faxing, politicians even speaking to some of them.
I had a meeting with Alan Milne about 3 years ago; he agreed that having water catchment and storage would be essential for any new house from then on. But alas, that was about it from the KCDC, except that about 5 months ago, when they sent me an email demanding I did not put up anymore ‘oilcrash’ signs and if I did, I could face prosecution.
So I have struggled, mainly on my own (apart from the support of my partner Jill and a very small number of friends). I have been trying to inform the community about what is about to happen when we past the peak in world oil supplies.
I have gone to some extreme measures to gain attention for this cause, climaxing in my attacking the National Party billboards with a spray can, which has resulted in me being fined $1,660.00, as restitution, and 160 hours community service. To quote the judge «You will then learn how to help the community». I guess I’m still having difficulty coming to terms with the official definition of ‘helping the community’, since it seems to involve ignoring all the geological evidence and doing as little as possible to prepare for the ‘tsunami’ that is on the horizon!
I have been self funding my campaign of informing the public to the tune of about $15,000 and I have spent about 5-6,000 hours working on this.
I am lucky I still enjoy good health, as I suspect most people would have been driven to the wall by now.
About 2 months ago I contacted the leader of Direct Democracy and in my usual blunt manner I informed him they had some good ideas but had not taken Peak Oil into account.
After my friend Kevin Moore in Auckland spent about 3 hours going through the evidence for imminent Peak Oil, Kelvyn was convinced at how imperative it was to inform the people: he began, by immediately updating the DD website to incorporate recent Peak Oil information. This is the typical reaction any humanitarian has to information about Peak Oil and its consequences.
Subsequently, I was asked to join the Direct Democracy party, as their Otaki candidate.
Unfortunately I fell off a ladder 4-5 weeks ago and fractured my back; hence then I have been unable to work. My misfortunte translates into your good fortune: I am now standing here. But even that was touch and go, as I had to have a very nasty phone conversation with Norman to let me come today.
So to my talk
We are getting a glimpse of our potential future, with what is happening in New Orleans at the moment.
5 days ago most of the population were healthy people who had a spirit of cooperation and willing to help each other. They had been through a bad experience and most of the area has been damaged, but it is not this that is causing all the problems they are now having, it is the lack of food and drinking water, which has also created a lack of law and order.
It is not the fact that the buildings are all smashed up, as long as you are out of the water you should be ok, the main problem is the infrastructure collapse mainly transport, weather it is transporting water through pipes, using electric pumps or the trucks bringing in food.
All infrastructure is dependent on energy.
The US Government have had several decades to prepare New Orleans for this event, with a history of flooding it was only a matter of time before it was going to happen again.
Well this is a similar situation we are about to find ourselves in, due to a lack of readiness by this government and that goes for the KCDC as well.
I certainly do not have a lot of answers to this massive problem but one thing most peak oil aware people agree on (apart from the Green Party or the Government) is that an informed population can prepare for a softer landing.
The million or so people that evacuated New Orleans ahead of the storm are now having a softer landing, sure they have lost everything that they left behind but they are being feed, have access to water and doctors and are protected by law and order.
Unfortunately the New Zealand government and its coalition partners and supporters have ignored the warnings for over 5 years, when I sent my first email to the government asking them to do something.
I even told Helen Clark this moment was coming before she became our first elected woman Prim Minster! obviously she had more pressing things to think about back then, gaining power, not were power comes from.
So not to dwell too much on the past. What are we to do now, at this 11th hour, when we could be facing rationing any day now, because the situation in the US at the moment will cause a lot of stress on an already stressed world wide energy industry?
Our petrol could be redirected towards the USA, as our contribution to the war on terror or some trumped up excuse.
George Bush has just had the law changed so foreign ships can bring petrol into American ports.
They have also removed pollution laws so they can burn more polluting fossil fuels or partially refined petrol, equalling a speeding up of global warming, which ironically will cause more hurricanes.
I am asking you to look more deeply into peak oil there is my site www.oilcrash.com which has about 600-800 A4 pages of lectures and information about peak oil, over population and our future, or I am willing to come and talk to any group wanting to be informed or wishing to discuses this situation.
We at Direct Democracy believe we have to open this debate up to the public and not keep it from the people with platitudes and basic lies as to the real situation we all face. We promise to do our up most to bring the population on board with all decisions we will have to make as a nation.
We will lay out the facts as soon as we get them, we do not look upon you as vote fodder, and we think Democracy should be more than a try annual event.
Did I scare you?
I sure hope I did.
But I’m not insulting you by lying to you or only revealing a sliver of the truth.
So I hope I have scared you… because at least scared people may rise up and demand change while the ones pacified on hope and fed lies will be as lambs to the slaughter… like on this very day on the mean streets of New Orleans.
So think before you vote, it is your very last chance.
Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.